They built an empire on 6-second videos.
But a lack of monetization brought Vine to its knees.
In 2013, Vine was THE app. Six-second loops created a new wave of internet culture—viral stars, comedy, memes. Creators like Logan Paul and Lele Pons built massive audiences, and for a moment, it felt unstoppable.
By 2016, it was over.
Vine never figured out how to pay creators, so they left for platforms like YouTube and Instagram where they could actually make a living. Twitter, struggling to stay afloat, pulled the plug.
Then came TikTok.
It took Vine’s short-form magic and turned it into a global phenomenon. The algorithm? Addictive. The tools? Next level. TikTok didn’t just thrive—it redefined social media, pulling in over a billion users by 2021.
Let that sink in:
January 2018: 55m users
December 2018: 271 m users
December 2019: 508m users
July 2020: 689m users
September 2021: 1B users
That’s 940,000 new users per day in 2021 alone. Insane, right?
But now, TikTok’s future is shaky. Banned in India, facing potential bans in the U.S., it might be heading toward the same fate as Vine—just on a mucchhh bigger scale.
And guess who’s waiting in the wings?
Instagram.
Reels got off to a rocky start, with users accusing Instagram of copying TikTok and losing its identity. Photographer Tati Bruening's viral post in July 2022 captured the sentiment: "Make Instagram Instagram again. (Stop trying to be TikTok; I just want to see cute photos of my friends.) Sincerely, everyone."
But while the launch was rough, Instagram is still crushing it. With 2.35 billion active users and the backing of Meta’s massive ecosystem, Instagram has remained a dominant force. And now, with TikTok facing potential bans in major markets, Reels is quietly becoming the default short-form video platform.
Vine walked so TikTok could run. But what happens when TikTok trips? Does Instagram win because it’s innovative—or just because it’s the last one standing?
The question isn’t just whether Instagram wins—it’s whether the world’s biggest platforms are built to survive their own success.
The takeaway?
Part 1/ Think through a sustainable business model from day one. Because the platform that wins isn’t always the most innovative.
Part 2/ Trust is everything. TikTok's rise shows the power of great content and algorithms, but its lack of transparency turned it into a political and security lightning rod. Without proving you can protect user data, you can’t outrun government scrutiny.
•••
I'm Saba, CEO and co-founder of Favs, a social app made exclusively for sharing photos and plans with friends. Do we hope TikTok gets banned and Instagram fails? Of course not, we like and use these media platforms daily. We're an alternative solution - a safe-space where you only see updates from the people you care about most.
It's free right now but we'll charge $1 per friend per year in the future.
Come check it out. Available in the App Store.
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This is a great piece Saba!